Though all numbers about marijuana are guesses, some are better than others.
California produces about 13 million pounds of marijuana a year. It itself consumes about 3 million pounds. That ratio is about the same in Oregon, though the quantities are a bit lower. The in-state consumption is regulated as “legal”, the remainder is exported to the non-legal states.
In California, about 10% of the known operators are expected to become fully legal compliant.
So most of the farmers have no interest in selling pot locally, but shipping it out of state. I talked with one dispensary operator today from New York who knew exactly what the prices were on the east coast, and then said that the price here in Ashland was zero, which makes the business decision easy. Why zero? Because there’s so much that nobody nearby need pay anything for it.
The recent Sonoma fires impacted some marijuana farms, but it’s hard to tell how much that matters. It appears the fires hit only about 30 some farms out of a probable 3000, which would be minuscule in the total CA/OR production. As reporters looked around they discovered that this years’ crop was expected to be way over expectations, and that last year’s harvest was still sitting in warehouses. CA already has a glut, and they are harvesting more as I write. Oregon matches this. Speculations about the fires’ impact on marijuana prices are a waste of time.
Pot is free to everyone living in Ashland because everyone knows a grower. Some farmers have storefronts, but that’s sold to tourists and is treated as a waste disposal method that returns a few dollars.
I think the regulated portions of the markets will only be 10-20% of the entire market in CA and OR.