California exports 80% of it’s cannabis crop out-of-state, which means only 20% of the industry is eligible to become state licensed under either medical or recreational schemes. Even if California is 100% successful in regulating the entire domestic market, the black market will still be five times the size. That’s how much is needed to supply the market elsewhere in the US. Oregon is in a similar position, but on a smaller scale.
The absurdity of so many California government entities developing laws, regulations, taxes, and fees that will make becoming compliant cost-prohibitive for, at best 20% of the market.
And 4/5ths of the market will still be vulnerable to federal prohibition against interstate commerce.
It’s hard for me to see how the government can get even close to the perfection of 20% capture and claim they have control over the cannabis market, which current federal guidelines demand. The current efforts in California are doomed from the outset to succeed.
That is, unless it becomes legal to move cannabis across state lines….