After watching the results of the November election, several states that did not propose any cannabis measures will be filing bills in their legislatures, but don’t expect many to actually pass anything. Even in the states that passed laws in 2016, FUD [fear, uncertainty, doubt] over the Trump administration will cause hesitations and delays in rules development and implementation.
Arizona will try to pass a “decriminalization” bill for non-medical consumers. Decrim sets individual possession or use as a civil offense, similar to a jay-walking ticket. It does not legalize the growing or transfer of cannabis, which will remain possible felonies. Decrim protects the customers of the black market. The Arizona voters voted to keep their black market.
Nevada has fully legal cannabis on January first, but there won’t be licenses issued for farming or sales for another year. Tourists with out-of-state medical cards can register in Nevada for the time being, and I have no doubt Nevada will come up with a scheme of some kind to tap into what will likely be a lucrative market. Oregon, as an example, passed temporary rules to allow medical outlets to sell to the adult market while rules were being written.
Those temporary rules in Oregon expire today, so adult (recreational) sales will have to be done at fully licensed retail shops. It’s disturbing to me to see how few of the many existing thousands of farmers and sellers in Oregon have signed up for retail licenses. Part of this might be the Trump FUD, but the state has been bogged down in bureaucratic bullshit, too. Product availability at retail stores might be real thin on the first, and stores might not be open quite yet.
Almost all the states have provisions for municipal or county entities to impose their limits, up to and including complete bans. Like dry counties in Kentucky. Portland, though, went further and included a licensing step that required a sign-off from the Office of Neighborhood Involvement. ONI has a poor reputation in Portland for bureaucratic red-tape, indecision, and generally gumming up the works at City Hall. Consequently, Portland will start the new year with far too few licenses to support the retail market.
Fortunately, Oregon has a very mature and robust black market accustomed to supplying the entire country, so consumers won’t be unduly inconvenienced. But the idea is to capture all of the black market, not just 10%.
Things are going well in Washington, but several adjustments will be made this legislative session. The Liquor and Cannabis Board has slowed down in issuing new licenses because there seems to be enough farmers and stores to meet the demand.
California is tasked with implementing both medical and recreational regimes by 2018. As one would expect in California, the bureaucracies will be breathtaking in their scope and costs. It’s counterintuitive, but Los Angeles County is basically a dry county right now, with an array of baffling laws that are a lawyer job protection goldmine. Assuming they rework all their current laws, LA will be, by far, the biggest legal market in the world.
That’s the summary of what the western states will be doing in 2018, but the Trump thing overhangs everything.